A closer look at the forecast, the news, and the context.
This coin is part of the thesis scope, but no trained artifacts are registered for it, so no forecast can be produced. Nothing on this page is estimated or carried over from another asset.
Bitcoin has deployed models for the 1h, 6h and 24h horizons. Select BTC to see live forecasts and the recorded track record.
Will the close be higher than it is now? Each horizon has its own model.
The bar is the model's UP score and the 50% line is the no-information point. These are model scores, not calibrated probabilities. Walk-forward validation was strongest at 1h (ROC-AUC 0.548) and weaker at 6h and 24h (0.524, 0.519), so read the longer horizons cautiously.
Probability that BTC touches +2.5% or -2.5% from the current close
Bands are provisional and derived from out-of-fold scores only. The historical rate is how often the event actually occurred for similar model scores; it is not this model's probability for right now.
48-hour lookback · next 24 hours
The hourly worker records a reference close with every forecast. The curve appears once history accumulates.
Compare model signals, inspect reliability, or explore current market evidence with linked sources.
Grounded in your saved forecastsNo news analysis requested yet
Ask a current-news question or refresh this panel. The 30-second dashboard update does not call research providers.
Every forecast recorded before its outcome is known. No historical backtest enters these numbers.
Forward monitoring only records outcomes for assets with a deployed model. There is no accuracy, Brier score, or prediction history for this coin, and Bitcoin's results are not shown here in its place.
Directional accuracy against an always-UP baseline on the same scored forecasts
Awaiting scored outcomes.
Trailing 7-day accuracy · scored forecasts only
Your accuracy curve appears as forecasts reach their target time.
Original forecast, saved at issue time
The hourly worker collects market data and records predictions automatically.
Saved forecasts and their realized outcomes
| ISSUED AT · UTC | PREDICTION | P(UP) | REFERENCE CLOSE | OUTCOME CLOSE | TARGET TIME · UTC | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No recorded forecasts yet.New predictions will appear here automatically. | ||||||
The analyst's answers follow a written operating guide. This page tests whether a revised guide answers more of the same questions successfully.
The same fixed questions are put to both guides, so the guide is the only thing that differs
A revision is never applied automatically. An accepted one is stored for review; putting it into service means editing the guide in the source and redeploying.
Held constant so a score change can only come from the guide
| SCENARIO | QUESTION | WHY IT IS HERE |
|---|---|---|
Loading scenarios… | ||
Every revision that was tested, accepted or not
| WHEN · UTC | BEFORE | AFTER | DECISION | APPLIED | WHAT CHANGED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No iterations yet.Run one to test a revised guide against the current one. | |||||
The forecasting models are unaffected by anything on this page. Only the analyst's written guide is tested here.
The collector runs on its own schedule, with or without this page open. These are its vital signs.
The collector runs hourly on its own schedule, with or without this page open.
Scheduled independently of this browser
Research runs only when meaningful changes occur
This workspace combines saved forecasting models, live outcome monitoring, and reviewed news context. The Research, Review, and Decision agents use the OpenAI Agents SDK to prepare answers from application data and retrieved sources.
Forecasts are recorded before outcomes are scored. Directional probability and validated reliability are shown separately. News provides context and does not increase a model's measured reliability.
This application explores how market data and news context can support cryptocurrency forecasting research. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Cardano are all within the study's scope, and each is selectable above.
Only Bitcoin currently has trained artifacts, deployed across the 1h, 6h and 24h horizons. Ethereum and Cardano are declared in the asset catalogue but report no model, so the interface withholds a forecast for them rather than estimating one or reusing Bitcoin's. Each needs its own market history and training run; because the sentiment corpus is Bitcoin-specific, their first models would be market-only.
Open API documentation ↗